2023 CanPL preview and predictions
2023 CanPL preview and predictions
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Cavalry
2022 Record: 14W 5D 9L +6GD 47Pts (3rd – lost to Forge in semi-final)
2023 Elevator Pitch: If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. Look, Calgary is hard to write about because they are so consistent in what they do. There’s very little change here from the 2022 team - -a good team, it must be said.
Under Tommy, they will play solid defensively and a straightforward, disciplined game. It works. They’ve shown that they can lose pieces and replace them from within. They are bringing the gang back together again for another shot.
How will it go right? Ask me in October. The talent is there. They will be in the lottery that is the playoffs again. The question is whether they can find a high-end attacking piece that can break through in a playoff game – games that are officiated in such a way that you need special talent. That’s been Calgary’s undoing. They are the Sporting Kansas City (not this year though) of CanPL – great in the regular season. Struggle in the playoffs.
How will it go wrong? They…continue to struggle in the playoffs. Or catch a bad break in a playoff game. It’s all the same at this point. Considering they’ve gone all in on retaining as much of the core of 2022 as possible, this is a all-in kind of season for Cavalry.
How I see it: 3rd place – lose in final
Forge FC
2022 Record: 14W 7D 11L 47Pts +22GD (2nd – Microwave Plate Champions)
2023 Elevator Pitch: To be the man ya gotta beat the man and, in CanPL, Forge is the man. Seriously, they are champions until someone proves them not to be. All but four players are back from a 2022 team that got better as the season progressed and was the clear best team on the pitch in the final against Ottawa.
How will it go right? They maintain the drive needed to let the talent flourish Also, they can replace Daniel Krutzen. They brought in Manjrekar James with that in mind – and Krutzen was out much of last season (but was key in the playoffs). Bottom line though: they are the most talented team in the league.
How will it go wrong? It’s implied above. It’s hard to maintain the drive year after year. In 2022, you saw it early when Forge struggled to be consistent. They will have to balance CCL as well (note: I mistakenly was under the impression that the 2024 CCL started in the fall. There is no CCL this year. I still maintain my 2nd place pick) which will be a big chance for the club, but will challenge the depth in a year when finishing top 2 matters a great deal.
How I see it: 2nd place - champions
Halifax
2022 Record: 8W 5D 11L 29Pts -14GD (7th – missed playoffs)
2023 Elevator Pitch: It’s a new era with a new coach. There’s a lot of work to do. If FC Edmonton wasn’t around last year this is the Wooden Spoon team we are talking about. They couldn’t score, they struggled at home, they were just bad. And, they’ve let a few of their core guys go. That might be for the best.
How will it go right? I wouldn’t normally point to a coach as being the key change, but I think it is here. Patrice Gheisar has a history of winning at the level below (while developing and coaching-up players) and will get a chance to build something here. He’ll likely get some rope – although not as much as he might of a few years ago – from the frustrated fans. This is not likely a one-year build.
How will it go wrong? A lot of people are calling Halifax’ off-season “intriguing.” That’s code for “we really don’t know who these players are and whether they will be successful but we want to sound like we know what we are talking about.”
Halifax’ off-season signings have been intriguing. If they don’t work out – and this is a new coach who has to learn what players will work in CanPL – it could be another long year.
How I see it: 8th place
Ottawa
2022 Record: 13W 10D 5L 49Pts -6GD (1st – lost final to Forge)
2023 Elevator Pitch: If you don’t lose, you give yourself a chance to win. Especially if you can get Ollie Bassett the ball in a good spot…
Ottawa kept things tight last year and they look to be set up to do the same again this year. Why not? It works. Well it work as well now that a couple key pieces have left?
How will it go right? They remain the best defensive team in the league. The success of this team is dependent on that first and foremost. With Diego Espejo back in the middle again, I wouldn’t expect anything less. Ottawa will be fine.
How will it go wrong? Will they be great again though? That depends on whether they can replace a couple key departures. Ballou and Addoul Sissoko, in particular. Taking that much talent out might be the difference between very good and great.
CCL obligations might make it challenging as well.
How I see it: 4th place – lose 3 v 4/5 game
Pacific FC
2022 Record: 13W 7D 8L +3GD 46Pts (4th – lost to Ottawa in semi-final)
2023 Elevator Pitch: A new dawn on the island. This is likely thew most turnover we’ve seen from Pacific since they launched. Gone are stars of the championship side like Alejandro Diaz, Marco Bustos and Callum Irving. The question moving forward is whether they can sustain their success now that their little brother in Vancouver is here.
How will it go right? They create dynamic play from the wings and open up space for Easton Ongaro. The big man hasn’t been able to quite capture the same form as he had in Edmonton, but he has shown that he can score in this league when playing for a weak side. If he does, they will stay in the hunt for the expanded playoffs..
How will it go wrong? They’ve lost too much up the spine and Ongaro can’t find that form again. It’s a lot of turnover and they’ve never looked quite the same since Diaz left.
How I see it: 5th place – lose in 4 v 5 game
Valour FC
2022 Record: 10W 7D 11L 37Pts -11GD (5th – missed playoffs)
2023 Elevator Pitch: If I could post the shrug emoji here, I would. This team is hard to peg (no pun intended). There’s a lot of turn-over, which is bad. However, there probably needed to be turn-over, which is good. Valour has never really had an identity in the four previous seasons. They need to establish one now.
How will it go right? They develop a consistent style and finda core that they can grow with. There’s too much change here to see them truly challenging – battling for the final play-off spot, maybe, but 5th is really up against it in the new format. The Jaime Siaj signing is interesting. Let’s say he finds his scoring touch again.
How will it go wrong? We are back here again next year. They need, need, need to identify a group.
How I see it: 6th place – miss playoffs
Vancouver FC
2022 Record: Expansion team
2023 Elevator Pitch: You only get one chance to make a first impression. There won’t be many expectations on the club to win, but there will be pressure to make an impact in the market. So far, the CanPL has struggled to gain attention in the major markets. One peak at Whitecaps attendance figures might suggest that this is their best chance to reverse that.
How will it go right? They have built a solid core at the back. Guys like keeper Callum Irving, Kadin Chung, Rocco Romeo and Marcus Simmons should make the side defensively solid, if razor thin. They look to be an athletic team, as well. Expect Vancouver to compete.
How will it go wrong? The depth is a big question mark. There’s just too much uncertainty to be confident in much more than a effort-driven, try-hard expansion season.
How I see it: 7th place – miss playoffs
York United
2022 Record: 9W 7D 12L 34Pts -6GD (6th – missed playoffs)
2023 Elevator Pitch: If they gave out awards for winning the off-season, York would be standing in confetti right now. They’ve looked to bring in guys who are proven to succeed in this league to strengthen a young core that showed flashed of brilliance in 2022. Flashes of terrible too, but…
Also a full season of Mo Babouli, who was a driving force behind the late season surge of York that saw them kinda, sorta challenge for the playoffs. On paper, they look good. You know what they say about games being played on paper though.
How will it go right? Beyond Babouli and Osaze De Rosario continuing their hot play, York will need a lot of new pieces to find their feet quickly and become a team. With players like Matthew Baldisimo and Jérémy Gagnon-Laparé joining DeRo 2.0 in the mid-field, there’s a lot to like with this team though.
How will it go wrong? It will come down to fit. They underperformed in 2022 and the changes that they brought in are designed to fix that. Basically, I don’t think it will go wrong in a clearly disastrous way. This is a playoff team. Are they a championship team though?
How I see it: 1st place – lose in semi-final
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Enjoyable preview, Duane. It is so hard to make predictions in a league where most of the incoming players are impossible to scout for yourself but you make some credible s cases.
York at one is...speculative but I do think that this is the first time that I sense that they are a genuinely improved side. My dark horse prediction is that they struggle early, Nash is sacked and they’re the best team in the league in the second half of the season.
The real test of York’s season will be in the stands and not the standings. If you can’t sell out a stadium that size in Toronto with Mo Babouli and DeRo2 then you have no business being anywhere near a professional football club.
Great preview Duane