2023 Vancouver Whitecaps preview
The best version of themselves
2022 record: 12W 7D 15L -17GD 43Pts (9th in West)
Playoffs: Did not qualify
Notable additions: DF Karifa Yao, DF Mathías Laborda, GK Yohei Takaoka, FW Sergio Córdova
Notable subtractions: MF Janio Bikel, Michael Baldisimo, Lucas Cavallini, Leonard Owusu, Florian Jungwirth, DF Jake Nerwinski, FW Tosaint Ricketts, DF Derek Cornelius
2022 NextPro: 7W 3SOW 5SOL 9D 0GD 32Pts (7th in west, did not qualify to playoffs)
2023 Elevator Pitch: Not cheap. Smart. The Caps will look to take this collection of solid MLS players and hope to get a value surprise from one of the new signings to make them to a true contender.
Why it will go right?
Vanni Sartini will lean on all the right buttons to make this team believe that it’s them against the world. Hoping that his motivation tactics haven’t worn out yet.
They will get a rebound season from Brian White who is being fed balls by what looks to be a nice midfield group. The Brians — Gauld and Raposo — in particular.
Most of all it will be because they made a major upgrade in goal. The 2022 Whitecaps were the worst goaltending team in the league, according to the advanced numbers. As much as we want the Canadian kid Thomas Hasal to get the reps he just wasn’t good enough last year.
In steps the J-League’s top keeper of 2022 in Yohei Takaoka. If he repeats his performance in Japan here then the Caps could see a massive defensive improvement and soar to heights they have rarely seen in MLS.
Why it will go wrong?
Takaoka is a bust.
There’s a reason that MLS teams rarely make big, foreign keeper signings — they usually don’t pan out. This one seems particularly challenged since he’s coming from a league that has very little cross over with MLS so we don’t have much to compare on.
Language may also be an issue in a position that is as much about marshalling the back as it is stopping the ball.
The Caps are a “moneyball” team. They need their signings to 100% hit to make up for the fact that other teams are going to spend more to get guys that are closer to a sure thing. You simply can’t say that about Takaoka or their DP signing Sergio Cordova .
With Cordova we actually have data. He only scored nine goals in 2022 while on loan with RSL. That’s simply not DP numbers. Vancouver had best hope that the theory that foreign players perform better in their second season holds true.
Key player
Julian Gressel.
There are those in MLS that think Gressel is the best crosser of the ball in the league. That’s a subjective opinion, but he’s certainly up there among the best.
He looked great after coming over in a surprise trade from DC last year and if he can continue on that form — form that looked a lot like his breakout year in Atlanta — then he will be the stir in Vancouver’s drink in 2023.
Unsung player
Karifa Yao.
CF Montreal expected him to be with them this year. They likely assumed that he would fly under the radar of most MLS teams when they left him unprotected in the Re-Entry Draft.
Having watched him excel in the CanPL, the Whitecaps swept in and grabbed him back in December. By all accounts he’s looked great in pre-season and is will be seeing regular minutes.
It’s not a splashy signing, but it’s the type of savvy gets that “moneyball” teams need to make.
The Ceiling
If White rebounds and Cordova shows more and Takaoka settles in then there’s a core here that could find itself battling for home advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Additionally, I could see the Caps as a team that takes the Leagues Cup seriously. Any team that goes all in there could do well.
The Floor
There’s enough talent to keep them off the bottom, but if a couple things don’t pan out this is a team that would be on the bubble of the play-in game.
The non-Canadian MLS preview will be available to Patreon supporters and paid Substack subscribers on Feb 23.