Ch-ch-changes (MLS wants to be a richer man)

A rumoured new playoff format for MLS (again)! What does it all mean?

Photo by Tareq Ismail on Unsplash

There are few things predictable about MLS. It’s one of the things that fans of the league love about it.

You can be the Worst Team in the World one minute, the Best Team of All-Time in a heartbeat and then, just as fast, Back to the Bad ‘Ole Days again all within a blink of an eye. To use a completely random example that in no way describes any particular team, especially one who wears red.

However, I disagree. The league is actually predictable in a few key ways, albeit none of them on the scoreboard.

Rather, it’s the boardroom that MLS is consistent in its willingness to evolve and move quickly from one idea to the next with seemingly no embarrassment about things that didn’t work out, or attachment to ideas that once were great but have run their course.

This can drive fans batty — you’ll often hear claims of MLS “making it up as they go along” or “writing the rules on the back of a napkin.”

Certainly, it can be frustrating when the league seems to shift a rule for the benefit of a big team. And, I was around during the Galaxy dynasty. You can’t tell me they didn’t allow them to do things that helped them build a team that other market couldn’t match.

However, I don’t think the league did that because they wanted a team from L.A. to win. They did it because they wanted star power in the league and it just happened to be L.A. where that star power wanted to go (and L.A. was willing to spend the money, not something every market was willing to do, it should be stressed).

If you look hard enough you can find other examples of the league giving a helping hand (see completely random example above…), all to make sure that the collective was strong. A rising tide and all that.

The strategy works. MLS is an exceptionally strong league, from a business standpoint. That’s not something that matters all that much to the average fan, but as a follower of the CanPL I would kill for a fraction of the stability that MLS has. Ask fans in Edmonton if they agree with me.

So, it’s with this in mind that you must absorb yesterday’s trial balloon that the league was looking to change its playoff format again.

On its own, MLS changing a playoff format isn’t particularly newsworthy. They change them more than most people change their sheets. However, in addition to being made to strengthen the business, to me this one also hints of a more significant format change that might be on the horizon.

More on that in a minute, but first a look at the format proposed (and, historically speaking, when these things get leaked, they generally are going to happen).

They are calling it a “World Cup style” playoff (because apparently saying “group stage” is too hard a concept). Basically, there would be four groups of four teams, divided into West and East sides. Each team would play the other teams in their group once then they would head to an 8-team knock-out. This replaces the single knock-out format that they have used since 2019.

From the league’s perspective moving to this format gives them a lot more innovatory. Instead of only 13 postseason games, there would be 31, including MLS Cup. That pleases Apple TV (who wants more “big” games to show) and it pleases the league in that it allows narratives to grow and momentum to build in each market.

That latter point is far more important than hardcore fans want to admit. I can point to the lack of hype around TFC’s 2019 MLS Cup appearance vs the excitement in the city for both 2016 and 2017 as an example of that. The current format may be more “exciting” in that every game is an elimination game, but it flies by in a blink of an eye.

Did Montreal truly benefit from its playoff run this year, which lasted less time than a first round NHL series does. I’d say, ‘No, not really.”

Had they won a three-team group stage before falling in the quarterfinals, a lot more casual fans get pulled in. Some of those buy tickets in 2023.

As for the Apple TV side…TV considerations are just part of what you have to look at now, for better or worse.

The critics of this proposed format argue that it devalues the regular season. To that, I’d suggest that the boat hasn’t just already sailed, but it has docked in an overseas port and is sailing back home again. MLS is a playoff league. That’s not changing. Ever.

E V E R.

So, it comes down to finding a format that hits the sweet spot between “needs to be a playoff” and “respect the regular season.”

This is far better than the single elimination format. It gives the top seeds a mulligan. You won’t see a 2021 New England Revolution situation where a dream season ends because of a couple bad bounces and bad scheduling. Obviously, you can’t prove this without seeing it play out, but I suspect this format would drastically increase the possibility of a No. 1 vs. No 2 seed MLS Cup final.

A big reason for that is that the No. 1 seeds in each group would be playing three home games (if you are doing a single round robin with travel, the way to do it is to have the No. 1 play all three games at home, the No. 2 plays two home games, No. 3 one and the No. 4 seed plays all three games on the road).

If a No. 1. seed fails to advance to the knock-outs after getting three home dates then that’s on them, not the format. Similarly, if a No. 4 goes on a run, then God bless ‘em. It ain’t luck.

Would a home and home format be better? Well, it would be more well known, thus “better” in many people’s minds. Would less teams in the playoffs be better? God, yes. But, see the comment above about boats setting sail.

In the context of what is possible, this is actually a pretty good format. You can count me as a fan.

As for the more significant format change this might hint at?

Making two groups out of each the West and East Conference is awkward, no? Having the top four teams from each of the East, Midwest, South and West Divisions, less so. As they reach the same number of teams of the other leagues, it’s only a matter of time until MLS follows their lead in how they organize the league as well.

For fun:

East: Montreal, Toronto, New England, NYCFC, Red Bulls, DC United, Philly

Midwest: Minnesota, Chicago, Columbus, Cincinatti, St. Louis, Nashville, Kansas City

South: Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, Houston, Austin, Dallas

West: Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, San Jose, SLC, Colorado, LAFC, Galaxy

That would allow for more rival scheduling, which is something Apple would like, and, probably an excuse to expand to 32 teams.

As stated, MLS is a league that tries stuff. Don’t be surprised if they try to start the Midwest Division by 2024.

The 24th Minute is my soccer blog. Support my coverage of MLS, CanPL and international soccer with a tip at my Patreon. Read my Urbanist writing at MegaMistake and look for a yet-to-be-named music and pop culture space to debut this month. You can always find me on Twitter at @24thminute.