England in Roo-ins!?
Relax, England. Tournament management matters.
For many, it’s not a World Cup until Brazil plays. For others, it’s when the first big shock happens. More still, say it’s not until their nation takes to the pitch.
All of those have merit. But, for me, it’s something different.
The World Cup starts when England starts to panic.
Without a home team to cheer for most of my life, it was always the heritage that took centre stage and, as such, I’ve been far more alert to the neuroses of the Island than to other storylines.
And they are generally delightful. The England portion of the Nike World Cup ad I referenced in the title isn’t that far removed from reality. There are few countries in the world that put more irrational pressure on the team to perform — outperform, really — than England does.
Here’s the thing — and it’s not a popular opinion to put out there — England pretty much performs at the level it should, based on its resources and size. This isn’t an original contrarian thought either. Soccernomics, the bible for contrarian soccer thinkers, based its entire thesis on it.
Here’s the other thing. Right now, England is outperforming its expectations. They have gone to back-to-back semi-finals of major tournaments and, despite yesterday’s 0-0 draw with the United States, remain among the legitimate favourites to go deep here.
So, let’s talk about that draw. It was undoubtably dull. Gareth Southgate was very conservative. Why in hell isn’t Phil Foden starting?
All of this is true.
Do you know what else is true? England is set-up to advance to the round of 16 with relative comfort. They would need to lose to Wales by four goals and see a win in the USA v Iran game for this to go sideways. That’s not going to happen.
Within that context and within the context of this weird tournament in the final days of fall (note: this is NOT a Winter World Cup. It’s still the autumn. Factually in North America and Europe) with a club season well under way and players playing on fumes, getting out of a group is far, far more important than playing with style or, even, winning every game.
What Southgate has proven he can do for two straight major tournaments is manage the tournament — to overcome the hyperbolic insanity that is England at a World Cup and put the team in a position where they can take advantage of an easy path or an upset that opens things up for them.
By not losing yesterday, he’s maintained that. The beer throwing yobs at England watch parties may not care for that, but they are, well, yobs. And, honestly, England has been influenced by the yobs for far too long and it likely plays a role in some of their bigger failures of the past.
The reaction today in England has been predictable. They aren’t happy and they are starting the calls for Southgate’s head. Among the more rational coverage - you might hear a reference to the 0-0 draw against Scotland at the Euros that was equally as boring and ended up meaning nothing at the end of the day - but it’s mostly panic on the Island.
I would suggest the mood in Southgate’s camp is slightly less hysterical. There, they can lean back on the fact that they have gone deep for two tournaments on the trot and take comfort in the fact that they will be in position to do it again.
England in Roo-ins? Nah, but they might be going South again.
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