Moving on in Hotlanda
Moving on in Hotlanda
The Josef Martinez era appears to be over in Atlanta. It's probably for the best.
Atlanta United doesn’t have a long history, but they do have a lot of it in a short amount of time.
MLS Cup champions in only their second season and a team that came out of the gates demanding that they be taken seriously. AU spends and thinks big. It’s because of that philosophy that fans of other MLS teams tend to view Atlanta as a force to be reckoned with year after year. This is despite the fact that the club has been pretty mediocre since 2019. Actually, mediocre might be generous. They’ve missed the playoffs twice in those three years and finished a middling fifth place in the other season.
That run of poor form was enough for the club to go after the consensus best GM in the league, Garth Lagerwey. He, of course, lead Seattle to two MLS Cup championships and the 2022 CCL title.
Lagerwey didn’t take long to start to put his stamp on the club. So far, 11 players have been allowed to walk away from the club, or have been told to.
It looks like a 12th will be added to the list soon.
The move of Josef Martinez to Inter Miami will represent a significant break from the glory years and, likely, signals that Atlanta is serious about stripping things down to start again. Reports suggest this isn’t a trade, but rather that Atlanta will use its one off-season contract buy-out to end Martinez’ contract. He would then sign with Miami. The suggestion is that it would be on a TAM contract.
Martinez was the face of the team and wildly popular among Atlanta fans. This one is going to hurt, but it was needed. Always a challenging personality in the dressing room, whispers have long suggested that he was a significant issue for more than one AU manager, post 2019.
Being a challenging personality is one thing when you are scoring goals and winning MVPs. It’s quite another when you are doing…what Martinez was doing for Atlanta. He’s never been close to the same player after returning from his ACL injury in 2020.
The drop in form is startling, actually. Let’s look.
In the purest sense, he’s just not creating chances anymore. Using xG as a measure of true chance creation, Martinez went from having a season long xG of 32.8 in 2018 and 25.0 in 2019 to 10.4 and 8.7 in 2021 and 2022. On a per 90 basis that went from 1.02/0.87 and 0.57/0.53.
He created twice as much before the injury as he has since.
A big part of that reason is that he’s lost his explosiveness on the ball. In ‘18/’19 he could create great scoring chances in 1-on-1 dribbles against defenders. He had 18 shots on target off the dribble in 2018 and 19 in 2019.
Since? He’s had three. In total.
His effectiveness in the air is greatly reduced as well. He had 44 aerials won in 2018. Just 12 last season.
Finally, he’s not making up for any of this with increased defensive output. In ‘18/’19 he had 82 defensive actions (winning the ball through tackle or interception). It’s 32 in ‘21/’22.
Those just aren’t DP numbers. For Atlanta to get back to where they once were it was time to move on, no matter how attached fans are to the player.
MLs is not a league that allows for sentimentality. TFC fans learned that the hard way when they held onto the 2017 team’s stars a beat too long and Atlanta is already experiencing a similar trajectory. I suspect the fans in Atlanta might experience a similar season to Toronto’s 2022 season this year as Lagerwey strips things down so he can build them back up.
It doesn’t have to take long to re-load in MLS, especially if you have money (which Atlanta does), but it also doesn’t happen instantly. Having a freed-up DP spot is quite helpful though. Just like it was with TFC last year when they bit the bullet on Jozy Altidore.
As for Martinez and Miami, it’s a marriage of convenience. Martinez gets a chance to prove he can still be an impact player in the league. Based on the declining numbers highlighted above, I have doubts, but it is possible.
Miami is rolling the dice on that happening while biding their time for a more significant signing. Some — not me, but some — think that signing will be Lionel Messi, but regardless IMFC will be in for every big name that hits the market. Players, taking their talents to South Beach* and all that.
*Fort Lauderdale
If he doesn’t work out, they will likely set themselves up to move on.
As for Atlanta fans, they will need to move on from Martinez whether they are ready or not. As MLS fans, they had best get used to it, with six seasons, nearly 250 appearances and 116 goals they had a pretty good ride.
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Can't think of Atlanta without thinking Almeron and how well he's doing with Newcastle. The club got that one right.