Sober Second Thoughts: Sometimes the glass can just be half full

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Photo by manu schwendener on Unsplash

Sober Second Thoughts was the very first MLS content that I wrote that generated attention. Back in the early days of the 24^th Minute 1.0 (Bloggr era) I would hammer out my thoughts on each game that TFC played. That article used to take between 24 to 36 hours to get written because, well, look at the title of the column.

TFC in those early days was a full weekend event. I literally was waiting until I was sober and clear minded enough to articulate my thoughts back then. I had Hunter S Thompson delusions, like a lot of dudes did in the early blogging era.

Yeah, I know.

I watched this week’s TFC v San Jose game on my bike trainer, riding 36.16 km with 547m of climbing at a 6% gradient average. Times have changed.

What hasn’t changed is my belief that, bad life choices aside, I was onto something back in the day. Sports fans – even the most rational of us – kind of need a little separation from the moment to rationally evaluate their teams on a week-to-week basis. Mistakes get overblown and moments of surprise over factored when you immediately try to talk about things.

So, Sober Second Thoughts may not have a double meaning any longer (for me: The taps are still running at BMO) it still is a useful exercise to give things a minute to settle before jumping in to a reaction.

Thus, you can expect this column every Sunday (I was at a memorial yesterday, otherwise I would have had it done earlier this week). It will be a paid bonus column in some capacity (I’m considering doing a it for the Whitecaps and Montreal as well, if that’s the case one of the team’s will be free with the other two paid -only, each week).

That pre-amble done, what better way to get back into SST than with a scoreless draw!

*cough*

It speaks to the roots of the column to have no road goals from TFC to talk about, so it’s all good.

Getting to the matter at hand, can you remember what you were doing on Sept. 16, 2017? No? Fair. I mean, it was more than 2,000 days ago. I ask, because that was the last day that ended with a TFC win in a west coast road game. They beat the Galaxy 4-0 that day. Tosaint Ricketts had a brace. Drew Moor scored in THE 24^th MINUTE! and Victor Vazquez added one late. Oh, 2017 was fun.

They’ve played nine games on the coast since then (it would have been a few more if not for, you know, the plague) and have only managed four draws in those games. It’s a tough ask to win those games in MLS. TFC isn’t the only east coast team that faces this challenge.

So, they went into Saturday’s contest with that as the context. Add in the multiple players missing for international duty and a win was always going to be a very big ask. So, all things considered a 0-0 draw was…ok. Yea, they’ll take it and focus on what is a very winnable game next Saturday at home.

Sure, there are some troubling trends. Once again they came out of the game with an xG just a whisker over 1.0. Their season long xG number is just 0.90, which ranks 27^th in the league. I’ve stressed the point many times, that MLS is a league that rewards teams that score goals, so a consistent lack of creation is hard to overcome. You have to outscore your xG, which requires you to have special players doing special things all the time.

Luckily, TFC does have the 8^th best xG differential in the league so far (actual goals above expected goals. TFC is .30). Unluckily, xG differential can often be an expression of luck, both good and bad. You kind of want to rank close to 0, since you can safely predict that you can replicate your production over time then.

So that is something to worry about, for sure.

However, even putting aside the travel and call-up challenges, the other zero is what I want to focus on today. The Reds put up their second straight clean sheet, something they have only done two other times since the championship season. And, one of those times was during that weird summer COVID schedule. So, it’s been an issue.

There were a couple moments in the second half where San Jose came close, but it was a fairly comfortable shut-out, particularly for a road game.

One player that has started to stand out for me is Sigurd Rosted, who is truly becoming one of those just-go-out-and-do-your-job-without-fanfare players that TFC has desperately needed on the back-line for years now. He’s not flashy. Probably not going to get much notice from MLS observers outside the market, but quickly become a guy Bob Bradley writes on the line-up card in pen.

A few numbers to look at: Rosted is averaging 4.8 clearances per 90 right now (Whoscored data) and winning 2.0 aerial challenges per 90. The former number ranks him 15^th league-wide and the latter 51^st. Those are significant stats, especially on a team that has started Hope beside Pray on the back-line the past two seasons.

The Norwegian is a rock. Toronto fans should be glad to have him.

I think it’s clear that after the collapse in week 1 versus DC, that Bob Bradley has opted to play a little more conservatively, at least until Lorenzo Insigne returns from injury. That’s likely part of the production issue. The current form needs to be better if they are going to win MLS Cup next fall, for sure, but nailing things down and grinding out points early is a sensible approach that is certainly not going to hurt them. In that regard, a 0-0 in San Jose isn’t just acceptable, it’s actually a little promising.  

Notes: I did want to make note of Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty’s first start of the year.

Started a little shaky, but the kid started to grow into the game. In the end, he was TFC’s most dangerous attacking option. It was especially rewarding to watch how he’s learning to draw contact and get fouled.

On the day he drew 2 fouls, which (small sample alert) would rank him 33^rd best in the league. He was also drawing attention for his ability to drive at players on the dribble, where he also had 2 successful attacks during the game. A 2.0 dribble per 90 number would be enough to rank him 25^th in MLS this year.

Let’s hope we see more of the kid.  

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