St. LUCK City?

Team CAPSLOCK is 4-0. What does it even mean?

Photo by Tiffany Cade on Unsplash

No one really saw this one coming.

No, the predictions for St. Louis no-I-won’t-put-all-caps-here-that’s-embarrassing-for-you SC were pretty universal. This was a last place team, or close to it.

The predictions were merited. There was very little MLS experience on the roster that made you think that they had the spine of a competitive side and the top end spend was well below that of teams that typically win in MLS.

It wasn’t disrespect that placed the CAPSLOCKS in last place. It was logic. A logic that still holds today, actually. It’s just harder to hear it with all the noise being created from a record-breaking 4-0-0 start.

There are, of course, some old men yelling at the clouds about how this start isn’t sustainable. I mean, it isn’t. They aren’t going to win all 34 games. The question is whether they can sustain a level of something approaching the nebulous concept of good, or even very good. Or, if this start is just a product of luck and that the pre-season predictions will prove to be true.

I’ve been accused of being an old man yelling at the clouds before, so I won’t stop here. I do think this start is largely based on good fortune — in the 17 years I’ve watched MLS closely, I’ve never seen a defender directly pass a ball backwards to an opposition attacker alone on goal. St. Louis benefitted from that twice in back-to-back games. Madness. However, I’ll also be generous and say that it hasn’t all been based on luck. There has been some good stuff in there as well.

Let’s start there.

The CAPSLOCKS talk a lot about being a team with “11 DPs on the pitch,” and certainly there is a lot of what they do that relies heavily on a team concept. However, they do, in fact, have a tidy DP in the Brazilian No 9, Klauss.

Klauss isn’t your typical Brazilian. He’s more of a pitbull type and, honestly, a breath of fresh air. A kind of throwback, physical force up top that just has a will to get to the ball and to smash it real hard.

If anyone on this team actually deserves the all cap treatment, it’s KLAUSS.

He is the centrepiece to what they do. And, what they do is compete. For every ball. Really quickly.

This is a fast, athletic team that is taking advantage of the early season mistakes being made by their opposition. And, yes, they are forcing many of those mistakes with that direct, fast, physical play.

To the point that I’m willing to say that they deserve the 12 points they have. They do. They have found a style that works for them.

For now. Here comes the clouds.

It’s simply not sustainable. If you’d like an objective measure of that, St. Louis is currently the No 1 (or 29, depending on how you look at things) team in xG differential — that means that they have the greatest difference of goals scored versus expected goals scored. Even more simply put, they have scored more goals than they should have based on their play. Sure, some teams can sustain that due to above average finishing. Those teams don’t generally have two back passes from the opposition benefiting them in back-to-back games.

This number will revert to the mean. There’s no doubt.

And teams will stop making the same amount of mistakes. MLS defenders warm into the season. As it gets longer, they will start to play around the CAPSLOCKS and, in doing so, are likely to start to find some gaps in an over-pressed midfield.

Finally, they are just going to fatigue. Injuries will play a role too. If they lose Klauss for an extended period of time, they are in trouble.

So, does that mean I think this team actually sucks and will be lucky to get 12 more points in 2023?

No. I think they might be mediocre and, with 12 points already on the table, they should be in the mix for a playoff spot. Celebrate that, St. Louis fans. Not all MLS expansion sides reach the level of mediocre.

But, it also doesn’t mean that they’ve discovered a secret sauce. If St. Louis wants something to truly shout about one day they will need to either invest in true game breaker talent, or develop waves of talent themselves to emulate what Philadelphia has done.

The former would require a change of philosophy and the latter takes years.

That doesn’t mean their fans shouldn’t enjoy things now. Of course not.

Hell, they should shout their joy at the clouds!

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