The roadmap to a turnaround for TFC
We know what might go wrong. So, let's look at what might go right
It’s pretty clear that I have significant concerns about Toronto FC in 2024. It’s hard to imagine anyone not having concerns. This is, after all, the 2023 Wooden Spoon winning team returning nearly intact.
It’s a bold strategy and one that relies on a lot of unexpected things happening this season. So, it’s foolish and/or naïve to predict anything but failure for TFC.
(deep breath)
However, this is MLS. Teams do have unexpected turnarounds. Weird things happen. Let’s look at DC United between 2010 and 2015, for an example:
2010 - 22 pts, 16th place
2011 - 39 pts, 13th place
2012 - 58 pts, 3rd place
2013 - 16 pts, dead last, worst season in MLS history
2014 - 59 pts, 3rd place
Explain that. You can’t. Other than to shrug and go ‘That’s MLS for you.’
So, as much as it beggars belief that TFC can significantly turn things around in 2024, it’s also just plain wrong to suggest that it’s impossible. Unlikely, sure. Highly unlikely, even. But, impossible?
No. It’s possible. MLS is a league that works off of fine margins. Look again at that string of seasons in DC. It’s also worth pointing out that the 2013 United team won the US Open Cup while breaking all time losing records.
Stuff just happens in this league. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that should give a TFC fan hope, but it should give them something like… undespair?
In that spirit, here is a roadblock of how TFC turns it around in 2023.
Hedman really is a genius
This one is kind of the most obvious, but John Herdman has a proven record of turning around basket case situations. Most of you will be familiar with the way he turned the CanMNT into qualifying hotshots and got us back to the promised land again. That was impressive. However, the better example for right now is what he did for the women’s team.
Some of you may not remember how broken CanWNT was after Carolina Morace. They finished last in the World Cup, were barely talking to each other and the team’s best players looked like a shell of themselves. It truly seemed like the women were about to fall into irrelevancy.
Herdman’s impact was immediate. It was especially felt with the team’s star, Christine Sinclair, who played the best football of her career under Herdman. That experience has likely informed how he is currently dealing with the Italians and it speaks to the second point.
The DPs need to play like DPs
Many people — many of them smart people who know MLS well — believe that since TFC won the Cup in 2017, the league has evolved. The Treble Reds were very much a Big 3 team, with the DPs driving the way. It’s difficult to win now the same way that Toronto won then — a point that was largely missed in the construction of the current squad.
That’s the high level thinking, anyway. The truth, I think, is a little more nuanced.
You can’t win if you only get production from your DPs, sure. But, that was always the case. 2017 TFC doesn’t win without Drew Moor, Victor Vasquez, Johnathan Osorio, hell, Nick Hagglund’s contributions either. It’s incorrect to think of TFC as being only a Big 3 team. In fact, they were very similar to the teams that win now. They had depth and, importantly, huge production from difference makers.
Sure, MLS is different in 2024 than it was in 2017, but it’s not that different. It’s especially not that different when you reverse the thinking and look at what MLS teams fail.
Teams that blow their DP signings do not win. Period. Ever. So far, the Italians have been a disaster. If Herdman can just get them to produce at an average DP level — forget exceptional — then some of those early season draws from last year get turned into wins and the team doesn’t enter the summer in a spiral of negativity and infighting.
Do I think that’s possible? I have my doubts, but it is possible. Insigne, in particular, does have a high skill level that can do special things in this league. If Herdman can reach him…
Someone needs to return to form or emerge
Until this team can offload contracts they can’t make significant additions. That means that they will need someone to step up and exceed expectations.
We’ve already talked about the DPs, so let’s restrict this to the rest of the squad.
Who can that be?
The nature of that question makes it difficult to answer without sounding a little too hopeful, but here are a couple possibilities. One new and one old.
On the old side, this has to be Ayo Akinola’s last chance. This is a player that looked hopeful in 2020 and into 2021 until the injury. He’s still young and, again, we can point to Herdman’s ability to fix things.
Word on the street is that Ayo’s biggest issue has to do with training habits and diet. Those are things that can be fixed and that Herdman is good at fixing. So, Ayo is a good shout for being a key player in a possible turnaround.
As for the new player emerging it’s got to be Charlie Sharp. A 2023 draft pick that returned to school and led the NCAA in scoring this season is worth keeping an eye on.
Here’s the thing: TFC doesn’t need Sharp or Ayo (or anyone) to win the golden boot. That obviously would be nice, but they really just need MLS-level production upfront to give them a chance.
It’s a bit of a chicken and egg debate, but having next to no punch up front last season made it more difficult for the DP wingers to impact the game (of course they were supposed to open up more space for the strikers so that…as I said, chicken and egg).
Those three things happen and who knows? At the very least they can be competing for a playoff spot in the bloated MLS postseason. I’m certain every TFC fan out there would take a season slogging around 8th-9th over what 2023 was.
Realistically, TFC is chasing mediocre in 2024. And, getting to that modest place should probably be considered a success. The possibility of going from Wooden Spoon to contender is pretty slim.
It’s just not impossible. So, for tonight, let’s allow ourselves a little hope.
This space is supported by paid memberships. Look for the return of a MLS podcast for members only in time for the 2024 season.
A little optimism goes a long way!