Ten years ago, I started a project to objectively evaluate the value of the MLS SuperDraft. At the time, the purpose was to see if the feeling that I was having – that the draft held much less importance than the league and (many) fans were giving it — was true.
The results of my study more or less backed up that theory. Although there were always a few players that would come out of any draft, the amount of picks that ended up never playing was astounding. And, we aren’t talking about late round picks here – most first rounders had little to no playing time in the league.
When it came to late round gems, I found that there were so few successes late in the draft that it was pointless to even look at them. No one team had more incidences of making good late picks, which led me to conclude that any success beyond the first round could be chalked up to luck.
That first review came at a time when the league was starting to move away from using college players. Earlier drafts did have more value. However, the full effect of the Homegrown Rule had yet to be felt back in 2011. In the years that followed, more and more players were skipping the college route altogether.
So, as I complete the fourth major update of the study now, ten years later (God, the old), there is no longer any question: The draft has far less value than drafts do in other North American sports and, although the league is starting to downplay it a bit, it still doesn’t live up to even the reduced hype MLS provides it.
Preamble done, let’s get into it:
The process is fairly simple. As stated, the study was limited to first round picks only. Additionally, I breakout the top 5 picks in each draft as there is a clear drop in successes after that.
As for what measurement I looked for, I settled on total appearances. It’s simply the most objective measure you can use that is equal across all positions. The purpose of the draft is to find players that play. So, I look at whether they played or not.
By taking all subjective opinion of the player’s quality out I do run into what I call the Chad Barrett Effect – a player that meets the criteria for the highest level of success in my system – Franchise Player – that, clearly, isn’t a franchise player in the traditional way that we think of the term. If you want to change that term to “MLS Lifer” in your mind to help you wrap your head around it, that’s fine.
The same goes for the other categories I created – Exceptional, Solid, Poor and Failure. Change them to “regular starter,” “squad player,” “had a cup of coffee” and “who?” if it helps you wrap your head around the ratings.
The measurement also restricts itself to MLS play. If a player was sold out of the league, he wasn’t contributing to MLS and thus the goal of drafting – finding contributing players -- was lost. Yes, there is value in the money that is gained from selling a player, but keep in mind that for the first decade or so of the draft selling a player that was drafted was exceptionally rare. Even today, there aren’t many Cyle Larin’s out there. Generally, the ceiling of players being drafted is to become a MLS regular. Top prospects these days are coming through the homegrown program.
I also didn’t worry about whether the player ended up staying at the club that drafted him in MLS, or if he went on to play for another MLS club. The purpose of the exercise isn’t to judge whether MLS GMs/Managers know what they are doing on a day-to-day bases, but rather if they can identify players that will have MLS careers.
I looked at every player picked in the first round from 2000 to 2020 (there were a few players that I could not find data for. I omitted those players).
As stated, I categorized the players into four levels of success – exceptional, solid, poor and failure. An exceptional player appeared in at least 75 per cent of games over their career (to be able to compare the older drafts, I considered six seasons to be a typical career and 30 games to be a typical season – i.e. players drafted from 2000 to 2015 were expected to have appeared in 75 per cent of 180 games). Solid players appeared in 50 to 74 per cent of games, poor picks appeared in 25 to 49 per cent and failures appeared in less than 25 per cent.
Last year’s draft picks will be evaluated using 22 games – the median amount that all teams played – as a full season.
2001-2015 More than 134 (exceptional), 90-134 (solid), 45-89 (poor), less than 45 (failure)
2016 – More than 109 (exceptional), 72-108 (solid), 35-71 (poor), less than 35 (failure)
2017 – More than 86 (exceptional), 57-85 (solid), 27-56 (poor), less than 27 (failure)
2018 – More than 67 (exceptional), 42-64 (solid), 20-63 (poor), less than 20 (failure)
2019 – More than 44 (exceptional), 27-41 (solid), 12-40 (poor), less than 12 (failure)
2020 – More than 17 (exceptional), 11-16 (solid), 6-11 (poor), less than 6 (failure)
There is an additional category of “franchise player” – that is a player that played the equivalent of 75 percent of games over 10 seasons (only players drafted prior to 2012 eligible).
Here are the results:
Franchise players in italics.
2000
Steve Shak – 22 (age in draft year) – 38 (appearances) – New York - Failure
Nick Garcia – 21 – 296 – Kansas City – Exceptional/franchise
Adin Brown – 22 – 85 – Colorado - Poor
Carlos Bocanegra – 21 – 87 - Chicago - Poor
Aleksey Korol – 22 – 40 – Dallas - Failure
Danny Califf – 20 – 186 - Los Angeles - Exceptional
Wes Hart – 23 – 92 – Colorado - Solid
Travis Mulraine – 23 – 15 – San Jose - Failure
John Wilson – 23 – 32 – Kansas City – Failure
Alan Woods – 22 – 19 – Colorado – Failure
Sasha Victorine – 22 – 239 – Los Angeles – Exceptional
Bobby Convey – 17 – 164 - DC United – Exceptional
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances – 108 - solid, Average age of picks: 21.5
Exceptional picks: 4, Solid picks: 3, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 3, Top 5 Ave: 109.2, Franchise players: 1 - Nick Garcia (2nd overall), Kansas City
There is something symbolic about the first ever pick in the first ever SuperDraft being a bust. Sort of a sign, don’t you think?
Unfair, perhaps, with Nick Garcia going second. Poor Nick had nothing left in the tank by the time he ended him career in Toronto, but is easily one of the best Super Draft picks of all time.
Aside: In case you don’t know, the reason it’s called the SuperDraft isn’t because they thought it was some kind of unheard of amazing draft, but rather because they were combining several drafts into one and they named it in the late 90s. Just be thankful it isn’t called the Xtreme Draft Presented by Taco Bell.
2001
Chris Carrieri – 21 – 70 – San Jose – poor
Ali Curtis – 23 – 50 – Tampa Bay – poor
Mark Lisi – 24 – 120 – DC United – solid
Ryan Nelsen – 24 – 81 - DC United – poor
Joselito Velasco – 19 – 94 - Dallas – solid
Craig Demmin – 30 -19 – Tampa – failure
Ryan Suarez – 24 -75 – Dallas -- poor
Santino Quaranta – 17 -180 – DC United – exceptional
Brian Mullan – 23 – 273 Los Angeles – exceptional/franchise
Duncan Oughton – 24 – 136 – Columbus – exceptional
Isaias Bardales Jr – 22 – 12 – Los Angeles – failure
José Luis Burciaga – 19 – 127 – Kansas City – solid
Total – 12 picks.
Average appearances: 103 - solid, Median appearances: 87.5, Average age of picks: 22.5
Exceptional picks: 3, Solid picks: 3, Poor picks: 4, Failures: 2, Ave top 5: 83.2 – poor, Franchise players: 1 – Brian Mullan (9th overall), Galaxy
Considering this came during the golden era of the Super Draft, such as it was, this ended up being a bit of a dud.
It is notable in that a future TFC manager (Ryan Nelsen) and GM (Ali Curtis) selected in the first five picks.
Speaking of Nelsen, his status here underlines one of the weaknesses of the format — I have yet to figure out how to factor players that go to Europe into my evaluation. However, I (more or less) stand by my position that if they aren’t playing for you then the pick is wasted. Later, when MLS started to actually get transfer fees there is a better argument to be made that there is value, even if they aren’t playing.
2002
Chris Gbandi – 23 – 111 – Dallas – solid
Taylor Twellman – 22 – 174 - New England – exceptional
Brad Davis – 20 – 271 – New York – exceptional/franchise
Justin Mapp – 18 – 223 - DC United – exceptional
Kelly Gray – 21 – 167 – Chicago – exceptional
Luchi Gonzalez – 22 – 30 – San Jose – failure
Kyle Martino – 21 – 141 – Columbus – exceptional
Carl Bussey – 22 – 9 – Dallas – failure
Daouda Kante – 22 – 26 – DC United – failure
Total – 12 picks (no stats for three players), Average appearances: 128– solid, Median appearances: 154, Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 5, Solid picks: 1, Poor picks: 0, Failures: 3, Top 5 Ave: 189.2 – exceptional, Franchise Players: 1 – Brad Davis (3rd overall), New York
It’s hard to imagine back-to-back picks as good as Twellman and Davis. This is one of the few SuperDrafts that kind of lived up to its name.
2003
Alecko Eskandarian – 21 – 125 – DC United – solid
Ricardo Clark – 20 – 185 – New York – exceptional
Nate Jaqua – 22 – 193 – Chicago – exceptional
Mike Magee – 19 – 286 – New York – exceptional/franchise
David Stokes – 21 – 24 – DC United – failure
Todd Dunivant – 22 – 284 – San Jose – exceptional/franchise
Diego Walsh – 19 – 30 – Columbus – poor
Guillermo Gonzalez – 17 – 12 – Los Angeles – failure
Pat Noonan – 23 – 208 – New England – exceptional
Shavar Thomas – 22 – 174 – Dallas – exceptional
Total – 10 picks, Average appearances: 127 – solid, Median appearances: 173, Average age of picks: 20.6
Exceptional picks: 6, Solid picks: 1, Poor picks: 0, Failures: 3, Ave top 5: 162.6 – exceptional, Franchise players: 2 – Mike McGee (4th overall), New York; Todd Dunivant (6th overall), San Jose
We are now in the peak era of the SuperDraft, when screwing up a pick truly was something that handicapped your team. It’s also the smallest of the drafts — third round selections in this draft are first rounders now. You’ll note that the late first rounders in later drafts don’t do so well.
2004
Freddy Adu – 15 – 133- DC United - solid
Chad Marshall – 20 – 308 – Columbus – exceptional/franchise
Joseph Ngwenya – 23 – 118 – Los Angeles - solid
Matthew Taylor – 23 – 54 - Kansas City - poor
Ryan Cochrane – 21 – 172 – San Jose - exceptional
Ramón Núñez – 18 – 75- Dallas - poor
Clarence Goodson – 22 – 118 – Dallas - solid
Clint Dempsey – 21 – 186- New England - exceptional
Scott Buete – 24 – 21 – Chicago - failure
Steve Cronin – 21 – 86 – San Jose - poor 127
Total – 10 picks, Average appearances: 127.1 – solid, Average age of picks: 20.8
Exceptional picks: 3, Solid picks: 3, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 1, Top 5 average: 157 – exceptional, Franchise players: 1 – Ryan Cochrane (5th overall), San Jose
American Pele, my ass.
But, seriously, this is likely the only time that the SuperDraft got national attention and it was all because of Adu.
Was he a complete bust? No, but as the numbers suggest, he wasn’t a good first overall pick — not that DC United had much choice in the matter.
That No 2 pick tho…..
2005
Nikolas Besagno – 16 – 8 – Salt Lake – Failure
Brad Guzan – 21 – 183 - Chivas - Exceptional
Chad Barrett – 20 – 278 – Chicago – exceptional/franchise
Danny O'Rourke – 22 – 189 – San Jose – exceptional
Ugo Ihemelu – 22 – 186 – Los Angeles – exceptional
Drew Moor – 21- 390 – Dallas – exceptional/franchise
Hunter Freeman – 20 – 126 – Colorado – solid
Troy Roberts – 22 – 61 – Los Angeles – poor
Michael Parkhurst – 21 – 301 - New England – exceptional/franchise
Jack Stewart – 22 – 39 – Chicago- poor
Scott Sealy – 24 – 144 – Kansas City – exceptional
Tim Ward – 18 – 71 – New York – poor
Total – 12 picks, Average appearances: 164.66 – exceptional, Median appearances: 109, Average age of picks: 20.75
Exceptional picks: 7, Solid picks: 1, Poor picks: 3, Failures: 1, Ave top 5: 143.4 – exceptional, Franchise players: 3 – Chad Barrett (3rd overall), Chicago; Drew Moor (6th overall), Dallas, Michael Parkhurst New England (9th overall)
The golden era of the draft is in full swing, with the average first round pick falling in the exceptional category.
This draft also has the player that, I’d argue, is the best SuperDraft selection of all time (when you factor where he was picked and what his career ended up being).
Come on down, Drew Moor!
2006
Marvell Wynne – 19 – 301 – New York – exceptional/franchise
Mehdi Ballouchy – 22 – 216 – Salt Lake – exceptional
Jason Garey – 21-97 – Columbus - solid
Yura Movsisyan – 18 – 81 – Kansas City - poor
Sacha Kljestan – 19 – 279- Chivas – exceptional/franchise
Dax McCarty – 18 – 382 – Dallas – exceptional/franchise
Justin Moose – 21 – 8 – DC United – poor
Patrick Ianni – 20 – 130 – Houston – solid
Kei Kamara – 21 – 359 – Columbus – exceptional/franchise
Calen Carr – 23 – 117 – Chicago – solid
Nathan Sturgis – 18 – 141 – Los Angeles – solid
Total – 12 picks (no stats on one player), Average appearances: 191.9 – exceptional, Median appearances: 106, Average age of picks: 20
Exceptional picks: 5, Solid picks: 4, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 1, Top 5 Ave.: 160.2 – exceptional, Franchise players: 3 - Marvell Wynne (1st overall) Red Bulls, Sacha Kljestan (5th overall) Chivas USA, Kei Kamara (9th overall) Columbus
When you are arguing about what the best overall draft year of all-time is, there is only one right answer: It’s 2006. This first round is chalked full of players that made significant impact of the league and the three Franchise Players are first round Hall of Fame types.
The GOAT draft.
2007
Maurice Edu – 20 – 91 – Toronto – solid
Bakary Soumaré – 20 – 125 – Chicago – solid
Michael Harrington – 20 – 221 – Kansas City – exceptional
Chris Seitz – 19 – 112 – Salt Lake - solid
Wells Thompson – 22 – 158 – New England - exceptional
Nico Colaluca – 20 – 11 – Colorado – failure
John Cunliffe – 25 – 27 – Chivas – failure
Jerson Monteiro – 21 – 5 – Chicago – Failure
Anthony Wallace – 17 – 44- Dallas – failure
Andrew Boyens – 23 – 70 – Toronto - poor
Bryan Arguez – 17 – 0 – DC United – failure
Amaechi Igwe – 18 – 22 – New England – failure
John Michael Hayden – 23 – 18 – Houston – failure
Total – 13 picks, Average appearances: 69.5 - poor, Median appearances: 31.5, Average age of picks: 20.4, Exceptional picks: 2, Solid picks: 2, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 7, Top 5 Ave: 131.6 - solid, Franchise Players: None
TFC fans will think to themselves ‘Of course the greatest draft of all-time came just before we came into the the league. And, it’s a significant drop in quality to the 2007 draft.
Mo Edu did get Grass to BMO though (and no you can’t get a copy of the podcast Rycroft, Squizz and I did after following a Toronto city council meeting at Scallywags for three hours and 15 beers. Squizz burned the tape #DeepCutForTheLongtimeListeners)
In 2008 the Homegrown Rule was adopted by Major League Soccer. In hindsight, it was the start of the decline in importance of the SuperDraft.
2008
Chance Myers – 19 – 148 – Kansas City – solid,
Brek Shea – 17 – 229 – Dallas – Exceptional
Tony Beltran – 20 – 245 – Salt Lake – exceptional
Sean Franklin – 22 – 272 – Los Angeles – exceptional/franchise player
Ciaran O'Brien – 19 – 1 – Colorado – failure
Andy Iro – 22 – 71 – Columbus – poor
Patrick Nyarko – 21 – 236 – Chicago – Exceptional
Josh Lambo – 16 – 0 – Dallas- failure
Julius James – 23 – 95 – Toronto – solid
Pat Phelan – 22 – 80 – Toronto – poor
Roger Espinoza – 21 – 254 – Kansas City — Exceptional
Dominic Cervi – 21 – 0 - Chicago – failure
Rob Valentino – 21 – 0 – New England – failure
David Horst – 22 – 19 – Salt Lake – failure
Total – 14 picks, Average appearances: 113.4 - solid, Median appearances: 74.5, Average age of picks: 20.4
Exceptional picks: 5, Solid picks: 2, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 5, Ave top 5: 129.8 – solid, Franchise Players 1 - Sean Frankland (4th overall) Los Angeles
As pointed out above, this is the first draft with the homegrown rule in effect. The change isn’t immediate, but the great players in the drafts that follow are closer to “Solid MLS lifers” than stars.
2009
Steve Zakuani – 21 – 97 – Seattle – solid
Sam Cronin – 22 – 253 – Toronto – exceptional
Omar Gonzalez – 21 – 217 – Los Angeles – exceptional
O'Brian White – 23 – 40 – Toronto - poor
Peri Marošević – 20 – 11 – Dallas - poor
Rodney Wallace – 21 – 204 – DC United – exceptional
Chris Pontius – 22 – 259 – DC United – exceptional/franchise player
Matt Besler – 22 – 294 – Kansas City – exceptional/franchise player
Michael Lahoud – 23 – 122 – Chivas - solid
Kevin Alston – 21 – 172 – New England – exceptional
Jeremy Hall – 21 – 88 – New York- poor
Jean-Marc Alexandre – 23 – 40 – Salt Lake – failure
Stefan Frei – 23 – 302 – Toronto – exceptional/franchise player
George John – 22 – 119 – Dallas – solid 2218
Total – 15 picks (Stats missing on one player), Average appearances: 158.4 - exceptional, Median appearances: 66.5, Average age of picks: 21.8
Exceptional picks: 7, Solid picks: 3, Poor picks: 3, Failures: 1, Top 5 Ave: 105.4 – solid, Franchise players: 3 - Chris Pontius (7th overall) DC United, Matt Besler (8th overall) SKC, Stefan Frei (13th overall) Toronto
You know when I argued that Drew Moor was the draft GOAT above? Although I still am going with that, you have a solid argument if you say Stef Frei.
That said, the draft decline is clearly starting now.
Also, whatever happened to O’Brien White?
2010
Danny Mwanga – 19 – 102 – Philly – solid
Tony Tchani – 21 – 212 – New York – exceptional
Ike Opara – 21 – 180 – San Jose - Exceptional
Teal Bunbury – 20 – 297 – Kansas City – exceptional/franchise player
Zach Loyd – 23 – 180 – Dallas – exceptional
Amobi Okugo – 19 – 149 – Philly – exceptional
Jack McInerney – 18 – 175– Philly – exceptional
Dilly Duka – 21 – 141 – Columbus – exceptional
Zack Schilawski – 23 – 50 – New England – poor
Blair Gavin – 21 – 43 – Chivas – failure
David Estrada – 22 – 50 – Seattle - poor
Bright Dike – 23 – 34 – Columbus – failure
Corben Bone – 22 – 20 – Chicago – failure
Austin da Luz – 23 – 21 – New York – failure
Collen Warner – 22 – 209 – Salt Lake – exceptional
Michael Stephens – 21 – 131 – Los Angeles - solid
Total – 16 picks, Average appearances: 124.6 – solid, Median appearances: 35.2, Average age of picks: 21.2
Exceptional picks: 8, Solid picks: 2, Poor picks: 2, Failures: 4, Ave top 5: 194.2, Franchise players: 1 - Team Bunbury (4th overall) SKC
My biggest memory of this draft was the Sons of Ben making all kinds of noise throughout and the Union putting all kinds of emphasis on the importance of the draft in building the team.
They got good when they started to develop their own players and trading all their draft picks away.
2011
Omar Salgado – 18 – 26 – Vancouver – failure
Darlington Nagbe – 21 – 285 – Portland – exceptional/franchise player
Perry Kitchen – 19 – 218 – DC United – exceptional
Zarek Valentin – 20 – 151 – Chivas - exceptional
Zac MacMath – 20 – 148 – Philly – solid 828
A. J. Soares – 22 – 108 – New England – solid
Kofi Sarkodie – 20 – 130 – Houston – solid
Michael Nanchoff – 23 – 22 – Vancouver – failure
Jalil Anibaba – 23 – 231 – Chicago – exceptional
C. J. Sapong – 22 – 280 – Kansas City – exceptional/franchise player
Will Bruin – 22 – 261 – Houston – exceptional/franchise player
Rich Balchan – 22 – 23 – Columbus – failure
Corey Hertzog – 21 – 12 – New York – failure
Víctor Mairongo – 23 – 9 – Chivas – failure
Justin Meram – 264 – 17 – Columbus – exceptional/franchise player
Paolo Cardozo – 22 – 27 – Los Angeles – failure
Bobby Warshaw – 22 – 32 – Dallas – failure
Eddie Ababio – 23 – 0 – Colorado – failure
Total – 18 picks, Average appearances: 123.7 - solid, Median appearances: 17.5, Average age of picks: 20.1
Exceptional picks: 5, Solid picks: 3, Poor picks: 1, Failures: 9, Top 5 Ave: 165.6 – exceptional, Franchise players: 3 - Darlington Nagbe (2nd overall) Portland, C. J. Sapong (10th Overall) SKC, Will Bruin (11th Overall) Houston
Ok, passing over Nagbe for Salgado as your first ever move as a MLS club isn’t great, but it wasn’t fatal to the Whitecaps - the attitude that they were the smartest person in the room was though.
They could have got him at the 8 pick. They could have started their MLS life with Darlington friggin Nagbe.
Pretty dumb.
2012
Andrew Wenger - Montreal 22-- 181 – Exceptional
Darren Mattocks - Vancouver – 22 - 182 – Exceptional
Kelyn Rowe - New Eng - 21- 240 – Exceptional
Luis Silva – Toronto- 24 - 162 - Exceptional
Casey Townsand - Chivas -23- 26 –failure
Sam Garza - San Jose -23-- 12 – Failure
Nick DeLeon - DCU -22- 233 - Exceptional
Andrew Jean-Baptiste -20- PDX - 41 – poor
Austin Berry - Chicago -24- 118 - solid
Ethan Finlay - Columbus -22- 215 – exceptional
Matt Hedges - Dallas -22- 262 – Exceptional/franchise player
Aaron Maund - Toronto -22- 91 – Solid
Chandler Hoffman - Philly -22- 20 – Failure 1026
Tony Cascio - Colorado -22- 42 – poor
Andrew Duran - Seattle -23- 0 – Failure
Dom Dwyer - KC -22- 208 - Exceptional
Enzo Martinez - SLC -22- 0 - Failure
Colin Rolfe - Houston -22- 0 - Failure
Tommy Meyer - LAG -22- 33 - poor
Total – 18 picks, Average appearances: 109.1 - solid, Median appearances: 46 – poor, Average age of picks: 21.1
Exceptional picks: 7, Solid picks: 1, Poor picks: 4, Failures: 6, Top 5 Ave: 153 – exceptional, Franchise players: 1 - Matt Hedges (11th Overall) Dallas
I mean…we’re getting into the point where it’s hard to find anything to say about these drafts. They all are the sane — a bunch of 2-3 year squad players, with 1-2 starters and the rest are USL players, at best.
2013
Andrew Farrell - New England -21- 239 - Exceptional
Carlos Alvarez - Chivas -23- 51 – poor
Kyle Bekker - Toronto -23- 59 - poor
Kekuta Manneh – Vancouver -19- 155 – exceptional
Erik Hurtado - Vancouver -23- 133 - Solid
Deshorn Brown - Colorado -23-- 62 - poor
Walker Zimmerman - Dallas -20- 162 - Exceptional
Blake Smith - Montreal -22- 19 - failure
Ryan Finley - Columbus - 30 – 22 – failure
Eriq Zavaleta - Seattle -21- 109 - solid
Dillon Powers - Colorado -22- 152 - Exceptional
John Stertzer - SLC -23- 28- poor
Jason Johnson - Houston -23- 41 - poor
Mikey Lopez - KC 20- 13 - Failure
Tommy Muller - San Jose -22- 0 - Failure
Emery Welshman – Toronto-22 - 1 - Failure 1291
Taylor Kemp - DCU -22- 43 - poor
Fernando Monge -23- Montreal - 0 - Failure
Charlie Rugg - LAG -23- 4 - Failure
Total – 19 picks, Average appearances: 67.9 – poor, Median appearances: 40 – poor, Average age of picks: 21.9
Exceptional picks: 4, Solid picks: 2, Poor picks: 6, Failures: 7, Top 5 Ave: 127.4 -- solid, Franchise players: 0
Kevin Payne, footballing genius…That’s also a deep cut for the long time readers and listeners.
2014
Andre Blake – Philadelphia 24 – 145 – Exceptional
Steve Birnbaum - D.C. United 23- 173 - Exceptional
Christian Dean - Vancouver Whitecaps 21- 9 – failure
Steve Neumann - New England Revolution 23- 36 - failure
Eric Miller - Montreal Impact 21 – 121 - solid 484
Tesho Akindele - FC Dallas 22 – 178 – exceptional
Andre Lewis – Vancouver – 20 – 0 - failure
Damion Lowe - Seattle Sounders 21 – 0 – failure
J. J. Koval - San Jose Earthquakes 22 – 37 - - failure
Nick Hagglund - Toronto FC 24 – 121 – solid
Patrick Mullins - New England Revolution 22 – 139 – exceptional
Marlon Hairston - Colorado Rapids 20 – 25 - poor 554
Marco Franco - Chicago Fire 23 – 0 - failure
Ben Sweat - Columbus Crew 23 – 0 – failure
Pedro Ribeiro - Philadelphia Union 24 – 27 – poor
A. J. Cochran - Houston Dynamo 21 – 26 – poor
Schillo Tshuma - Portland Timbers 22 – 0 – failure
Ryan Neil - Real Salt Lake 22 – 0 – failure
Grant Van De Casteele - Colorado Rapids 23 – 1 – failure
Total – 19 picks.
Average appearances: 54.6 -- poor, Median appearances: 25 – poor, Average age of picks: 22.1
Exceptional picks: 2, Solid picks: 5, Poor picks: 3, Failures: 9, Top 5 Ave: 110.8 – solid, Franchise players: 0
Another draft where the average appearances falls in to the poor range.
2015
Cyle Larin - Orlando City SC 19 – 87 -- Poor
Khiry Shelton - New York City FC 21 – 96 – solid
Romario Williams - Montreal Impact 20 – 28 – failure
Fatai Alashe - San Jose Earthquakes 21 – 107 – Solid
Nick Besler - Portland Timbers 21 – 51 - poor 369
Alex Bono - Toronto FC 20 – 82 – poor
Matt Polster - Chicago Fire 21 – 30 – exceptional
Zach Steinberger - Houston Dynamo 22 – 3 – failure
Clément Simonin - Toronto FC 23 – 2 – failure
Connor Hallisey - Sporting Kansas City - 21 – 30 - poor
Skylar Thomas - Toronto FC 21 – 0 – failure
Saad Abdul-Salaam - Sporting Kansas City - 23 – 94 – solid
Tim Parker - Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 21 – 155 – Exceptional
Axel Sjöberg - Colorado Rapids - 23 – 90 – Solid
Otis Earle - FC Dallas - 22 – 0 – failure
Cristian Roldan - Seattle Sounders FC - 19 – 173 – exceptional
Miguel Aguilar - D.C. United - 21 – 23 – Failure
Leo Stolz - New York Red Bulls - 23 – 0 – failure
Sergio Campbell - Columbus Crew SC - 22 – 1 – failure
Amadou Dia - Sporting Kansas City - 21 – 55 – poor
Ignacio Maganto - Los Angeles Galaxy - 23 – 13 - Failure 1121
Total – 21 picks (Extra pick due to need to honour Chivas trades), Average appearances: 53.4– poor, Median appearances: 14 – poor, Average age of picks: 21.4
Exceptional picks: 5, Solid picks: 4, Poor picks: 3, Failures: 9, Top 5 Ave: 73.8 – poor, Franchise players: 0
Seeing Alex Bono in there is a good time to talk about keepers — my system eventually works out for them, but it can take years. Bono will probably eventually be an exceptional level pick. But, he’s not now.
Is what it is; it washes out in the end. Also, Bono should have saved that free kick vs Chivas.
2016
Jack Harrison - Chicago - 20 - 55 - Poor
Josh Yaro - Philadelphia Union - 22 - 23 - Failure
Keegan Rosenberry - Philadelphia Union - 23 - 131 - Exceptional
Brandon Vincent - Chicago Fire FC - 22 - 85 - Solid
Omar Holness - Real Salt Lake - 22 - 18 - Failure
Fabian Herbers - Philadelphia Union - 23 - 91 - Solid
Richie Laryea - Orlando City SC - 22 - 61 - Poor
Andrew Tarbell - San Jose Earthquakes - 23 - 48 - Poor
Tsubasa Endoh - Toronto FC - 23 - 55 - Poor
Jordan McCrary - New England Revolution - 23 - 15 - failure
Julian Buescher - D.C. United - 23 - 27 - Failure
Jonathan Campbell - Chicago Fire FC - 23 - 76 - Solid
Hadji Barry - Orlando City SC - 24 - 11 - Failure
Kyle Fisher - Impact - 22 - 22 - Failure
Emmanuel Appiah - Colorado Rapids - 23 - 1 - Failure
Cole Seiler - Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Ryan Herman - Dallas - 23 - 0 - Failure
Justin Bilyeu - New York Red Bulls - 22 - 4 - Failure
Rodrigo Saravia - Columbus Crew SC - 23 - 10 - Failure
Ben Polk - Portland Timbers - 24 - 0 - Failure
Total – 20 picks, Average appearances 36.6 - poor, Average age of picks: 22.4
Exceptional picks 1, Solid picks 3, Poor picks 4, Failures 12, Top 5 Ave: 62.4 – poor, Franchise players: 0
2017
Abu Danladi - Minnesota United - 22 - 84 - Solid
Miles Robinson - Atlanta United - 20 - 61 - Solid
Jonathan Lewis - New York City FC - 20 - 65 - Solid
Jeremy Ebobisse - Portland Timbers - 20 - 75 - Solid
Lalas Abubakar - Columbus Crew - 23 - 58 - Solid
Jackson Yueill - San Jose Earthquakes - 20 - 87 - Exceptional
Jakob Nerwinski - Vancouver Whitecaps - 23 - 92 - Exceptional
Julian Gressel - Atlanta United - 24 - 120 - Exceptional
Niko Hansen - Columbus Crew - 23 - 66 - Solid
Joe Holland - Houston Dynamo - 24 - 5 - Failure
Daniel Johnson - Chicago Fire - 22 - 15 - failure
Chris Odoi-Atsem - D.C. United - 22 - 28 - Poor
Reagan Dunk - Real Salt Lake 23 - 3 - Poor
Colton Storm - Sporting Kansas City - 23- 0 - Failure
Sam Hamilton - Colorado Rapids - 22 - 3 - Failure
Kwame Awuah - New York City FC - 22 - 10 - Failure
Zeiko Lewis - New York Red Bulls - 23 - 0 - Failure
Jacori Hayes - FC Dallas - 22 - 38 - Poor
Nick DePuy - Montreal Impact - 23 - 5 - Failure
Brian Wright - New England Revolution - 22 - 14 - Failure
Brandon Aubrey - Toronto FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Brian Nana-Sinkam - Seattle Sounders - 23 - 0 - Failure
Total - 22 picks, Average appearances 38.5 - Poor, Average age of picks: 22.1
Exceptional picks 3, Solid picks 3, Poor picks 3, Failures 10, Top 5 Ave: 75.6 - Solid, Franchise players: 0
We are now deep in the homegrown era and that average appearance just keeps dropping. It’s hard to see it ever reversing.
2018
Joao Moutinho - Los Angeles FC - 20 -38 - Poor
Tomas Hilliard-Arce - LA Galaxy: 23- 5 - Failure
Tristan Blackmon - Los Angeles FC - 22 - 42 - Solid
Francis Atuahene - FC Dallas - 22 - 1 - Failure
Jon Bakero - Chicago Fire - 22 - 7 - Failure 95
Chris Mueller - Orlando City - 22 - 83 - Exceptional
Mason Toye - Minnesota United - 20 - 48 - Solid
Brandon Bye - New England Revolution - 23 - 76 - Exceptional
Mark Segbers - New England Revolution - 22 - 1 - Failure
Mo Adams - Chicago Fire - 22 - 42 - Solid
Ema Twumasi - FC Dallas - 21 - 7 - Failure
Paul Marie- San Jose Earthquakes - 23 - 21 - Poor
Eric Dick - Sporting Kansas City - 24 - 1 - Failure
Jon Gallagher - Atlanta United FC - 22 - 16 - Failure
Wyatt Omsberg - Minnesota United FC - 23 - 12 - Failure
Brian White - New York Red Bulls - 22 - 42 - Solid
Justin Fiddes - Vancouver Whitecaps - 23 - 0 - Failure
Graham Smith - Sporting Kansas City - 23 - 17 - Failure
Jeff Caldwell - New York City FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Michael Nelson - Houston Dynamo - 23 - 0 - Failure
Ben Lundgaard - Columbus Crew - 23 - 0 - Failure
Alex Roldan - Seattle Sounders - 22 - 46 - Solid
Carter Manley - Minnesota United - 22 - 9 - Failure
Total – picks, Average appearances 18.5 - Failure, Average age of picks: 22.2
Exceptional picks 2, Solid picks 4, Poor picks 2, Failures 14, Top 5 Ave: 19 - Failure, Franchise players: 0
This is likely the worst draft of all-time.
2019
Frankie Amaya - FC Cincinnati - 19 - 40 - Solid
Siad Haji - San Jose Earthquakes - 20 - 8 - Failure
Santiago Patino - Orlando City - 22 - 13 - Poor
Callum Montgomery - FC Dallas 22 - 0 - Failure
Andre Shinyashiki - Colorado Rapids - 22 - 46 - Exceptional
Griffin Dorsey - Toronto FC - 20 - 2 - Failure
Dayne St. Clair - Minnesota United - 22 - 13 - poor
Sam Junqua - Houston Dynamo - 23 - 9 - Failure
Tajon Buchanan - New England Revolution - 20 - 33 - Solid
John Nelson - FC Dallas 21 - 20 - Poor
DeJuan Jones - New England Revolution 22 - 38 - Solid
Luis Barraza - New York City FC - 23 - 0 - Failure
Logan Gdula- FC Cincinnati - 23 - 0 - Failure
Akeem Ward - D.C. United 24 - 1 - Failure
Chase Gasper - Minnesota United - 23 - 33 - Solid
Roy Boateng - New York Red Bulls 23 - 0 - Failure
Sam Brown - Real Salt Lake - 23 - 0 - Failure
JJ Williams - Columbus Crew SC - 22 - 8 - Failure
Emil Cuello - LA Galaxy - 23 - 20 - Poor
Tucker Bone - Seattle Sounders - 23 - 0 - Failure
Kamar Marriott - Sporting Kansas City - 23 - 0 - Failure
Janos Loebe - New York Red Bulls - 24 - 0 - Failure
Ryan Sierakowski - Portland Timbers - 22 - 0 - Failure
Anderson Asiedu - Atlanta United - 23 - 0 - Failure
Total - 24 picks, Average appearances 11.7 - Failure, Average age of picks 21.9
Exceptional picks 1, Solid picks 4, Poor picks 3, Failures 15, Top 5 Ave 21.4 , Franchise players: 0
Dayne St Clair is suffering fro the same fate as Alex Bono here (and it probably the best of a blah bunch)
2020
Robbie Robinson - Inter Miami CF - 21 -12 - Exceptional
Jack Maher - Nashville SC - 20 - 3 - Failure
Dylan Nealis - Inter Miami CF - 21 - 19 - Exceptional
Ryan Raposo - Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 20 - 15 - Exceptional
Daryl Dike - Orlando City - 19 - 17 - Exceptional 66
Henry Kessler - New England Revolution - 21 - 22 - Exceptional
Miguel Berry - Columbus Crew FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Garrett McLaughlin - Houston Dynamo - 22 - 0 - Failure
Jeremy Kelly - Montreal Impact - 22 - 8 - Poor
Patrick Seagrist - New York Red Bulls - 21 - 3 - Failure
Alistair Johnston - Nashville SC - 21 - 18 - Exceptional
Tanner Beason - San Jose Earthquakes - 22 - 9 - poor 62
Elliot Panicco - Nashville SC - 23 - 0 - Failure
Nkosi Burgess - FC Dallas - 22 - 0 - Failure
Cherif Dieye - New York Red Bulls - 23 -0 - Failure
Aaron Molloy - Portland Timbers - 23 - 0 - Failure
Cal Jennings - FC Dallas - 22 - 0 - Failure
Noah Billingsley - Minnesota United FC - 22 - 1 - Failure
Nyal Higgins - Toronto FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Dayonn Harris - Real Salt Lake - 22 - 0 - Failure
Simon Lefebvre - D.C. United - 22 - 0 - Failure
Jesus Perez - New York City FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Patrick Nielsen - Atlanta United FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Paulo Pita - Los Angeles FC - 25 - 0 - Failure
Achara - Toronto FC - 22 - 1 - Failure
Jonathan Jimenez - Chicago Fire FC - 22 - 0 - Failure
Total – picks, Average appearances 4.9 - Failure, Average age of picks 21.6
Exceptional picks 5, Solid picks 0, Poor picks 2, Failures 18, Top 5 Ave: 13.2, Franchise players: 0
It was a bit of a bounce back for the draft. Likely, the COVID-19 virus and its effect of transfers around the world meant that more young players were given an opportunity. Sometimes that’s all it takes. We will see whether 2021 will offer up similar opportunities.
I’ll break down the numbers a bit more tomorrow and SoccerToday will discuss the draft in detail Friday at 11a ET at @SoccerTodaySPN on Twitter.
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And Marlon Hairston has ~110. Both in the 2014 draft.
Note: Ben Sweat has something like 130 MLS appearances.